Boards & Rec
Go Back   Boards & Rec > B&R > Boards

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-18-2015, 08:59 PM   #91
kupomog
spring love, come back to me
 
kupomog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Honolulu, HI
Posts: 27,689
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post

_________________________________________________________________________________________


kupomog is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-20-2015, 06:16 PM   #92
jake
...with club sauce.
 
jake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: PDX
Posts: 13,345
Default

trump and carson officially going all in on islamophobia.

like, at what point does the fucking press just start calling bullshit on all this stuff? i just watched like 15 minutes of chuck todd desperately clinging to having no stance whatsoever and it's just so gross.

fox news actually bothers me less at this point.

jake is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-21-2015, 04:16 PM   #93
Andy
kraken
 
Andy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: hogwarts
Posts: 13,183
Default

another one might be biting the dust


_________________________________________________________________________________________



in your face, website with lame anti-leech script. this image is better

Andy is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-21-2015, 05:02 PM   #94
rubber cat
pineapple shoes
 
rubber cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 10,558
Default

hm

well this seems to put a damper in my election predictions

_________________________________________________________________________________________


rubber cat is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-21-2015, 07:31 PM   #95
jake
...with club sauce.
 
jake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: PDX
Posts: 13,345
Default

damn, i really wasn't expecting it to happen so early. i thought walker was just dumb enough to try to run on fumes/sink everything he has left into iowa and NH before dropping.

really hoping this loss was embarrassing enough to kill any potential future he had by ruining him with donors.

jake is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-22-2015, 03:11 PM   #96
jake
...with club sauce.
 
jake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: PDX
Posts: 13,345
Default

has anyone else been watching colbert/specifically his interviews with candidates? i've been really impressed at how much he's sticking to at least trying to bring some substance to late night interviews, even if the format limits how deep they can go.

the second half of his interview with cruz yesterday was really well done, and i like that he told the audience not to boo him because i do think it made cruz more willing to have an actual discussion (even if it was rooted in talking points) rather than being super defensive.

very curious to see how he does with trump tonight. there's a real chance this is the first real challenging interview trump is forced to do.

jake is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-22-2015, 11:43 PM   #97
Channel Surfer
Hardcore Boarder
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 2,725
Default

I really should make an effort to finish conversations sometimes...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jake View Post
walker was a favorite mostly because he's basically been the koch brothers' golden boy so he'd be able to raise a ton of money and anti-labor stuff could play to the base. he could say he's not an elite like bush. basically he was supposed to be a "reasonable" tea party alternative to huckabee and cruz.

but he's gotten killed in fundraising since the koch's have decided to wait to pick a candidate, plus i think people just mistook his dullness for being a policy wonk or something.
This is obviously easy to say now, but I always felt that the specifics of his anti-labor policies never translated much beyond the midwest - and frankly not much beyond Wisconsin state politics - and isn't something the base cares all that much about right now. It's not where the passions are. The Kochs were never going to be able to change that, and I think a lot of pundits and political expert types more generally overstate their power in that way. Not to mention even if he was their preferred choice, they'd still rather back a likely winning candidate that represents a lot of what they want to maximize that $900 million than back a clearly flailing candidate, even one that represents almost everything they want.

Edit: That said, there's this to consider too, in regard to his campaign's weakness.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/d...ong-it-lasted/

Channel Surfer is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-23-2015, 12:19 AM   #98
jake
...with club sauce.
 
jake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: PDX
Posts: 13,345
Default

anti-labor is still a pretty big base thing across the board, it's just that the issue landscape changed pretty dramatically when trump jumped in and the only things people seem to care about are "outsiders" and immigration so it's lost salience. passions for anti-union stuff were absolutely there when walker was being touted before jumping in. plus the midwest is where that matters the most because almost all of the big swing states are in the midwest (in particular, ohio conservatives are super anti-union, hence kasich's popularity, and if walker could have made it to those voters he would have had an edge). like you said, it's easy to say after the fact, but when he was being hyped this was absolutely significant because the issue landscape hadn't shifted yet. a lot of it is walker as a shitty candidate, but changing context is a significant part of it.

koch money is overhyped in general elections but is still basically the deciding factor in a ton of GOP primaries at the state level, and with a huge primary field could be a major deciding factor. for example, the only reason cruz is still in the race is because he has like 3-4 individual donors who are basically bankrolling his campaign for him so he can just do whatever he wants.

plus it's not just the kochs themselves, but the access to other donors you get by hooking up with them. once the kochs endorse you, other endorsements come rolling in.

Quote:
Not to mention even if he was their preferred choice, they'd still rather back a likely winning candidate that represents a lot of what they want to maximize that $900 million than back a clearly flailing candidate, even one that represents almost everything they want.
i get why someone would think this, but it's not really true. despite being rich, the kochs are awful at strategy. in the last midterm, they sunk a massive amount of money into monica wehby into oregon against merkley, which was just incredibly stupid because (1) she's a republican and it's a statewide election in oregon; (2) merkley is incredibly popular and even oregon republicans didn't like wehby even before they donated. that's why the kochs not donating to walker was such a surprise: they do have a habit of endorsing long shot candidates in primaries then losing in the general. the fact that they played it smart is a pretty big surprise.

jake is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-23-2015, 02:31 AM   #99
kimpantaloons
bobby sherman?!?
 
kimpantaloons's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: anaCRIME, ca
Posts: 6,766
Default

can this shit be over already? I don't have too many outspoken conservative friends on Facebook, but the ones that I do have make my head spin.

kimpantaloons is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 09-24-2015, 09:04 PM   #100
Channel Surfer
Hardcore Boarder
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 2,725
Default

Well, I am pushing you into a position where you have to defend what was reasonable to speculate on in the past, which isn't a fair position to defend and not something I want to go after too much. Especially since, if you're going back to like 2013-2014, I would have thought Walker would have been at least stronger too, when anti-labor seemed like a stronger base appeal. So one (likely) last point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jake
i get why someone would think this, but it's not really true. despite being rich, the kochs are awful at strategy. in the last midterm, they sunk a massive amount of money into monica wehby into oregon against merkley, which was just incredibly stupid because (1) she's a republican and it's a statewide election in oregon; (2) merkley is incredibly popular and even oregon republicans didn't like wehby even before they donated. that's why the kochs not donating to walker was such a surprise: they do have a habit of endorsing long shot candidates in primaries then losing in the general. the fact that they played it smart is a pretty big surprise.
The amount of money spent on ad buys in Oregon looking it up (or initially promised to Terri Lynn Land here in Michigan) doesn't even compare to what they're promising here. That's like saying I'm going to waste money on some junky new car I didn't properly research because I bought a bad 3DS game. They're rich, a few million here and there is basically the soggy used dollars from the bottom of their money pool. $900 million does. Not to mention the Presidency matters more too. Signalling that fundraising effort to the right candidate in this case matters. In local/state primaries and elections, they can and will be a little more free with their money in their efforts to push the country rightward.

Channel Surfer is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 05-30-2016, 11:02 AM   #101
box elder
Forum Leader
 
box elder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 19,531
Default who do you think's gonna be the next president?

Care to respond @jake ?

box elder is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 05-31-2016, 12:55 PM   #102
jake
...with club sauce.
 
jake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: PDX
Posts: 13,345
Default

yeah sure. his entire premise is based off of the idea that the kochs don't research who they contribute to, which isn't true at all. they have a network think tanks and strategy groups that they fund to do that research for them and present options. they still aren't particularly good at strategy even with that network. for example, in 2012, they let one of their biggest bundlers defect and spend a ton of money on gingrich (who took that money and spent it exclusively on anti-romney stuff) right when romney should've been wrapping things up.

he's correct that the oregon donations were a smaller amount of money, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a (bad) strategic decision or that any thought wasn't put into it. and this isn't new for them- they tried the same thing when they tried to unseat sherrod brown in 2012 (which was at the time the most expensive congressional election ever) to almost no avail because they completely ignored how popular sherrod actually is.

these big rich groups don't have endless money and if you keep losing elections, eventually the funders are going to stop funding. they don't just say "oh hey, well here's a race, let's give 'em some money," especially when you take into account how logistically difficult those kinds of contributions are. they have to filter money through a ton of shell corporations and you can't just do that on impulse.

jake is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 08-10-2018, 10:31 PM   #103
comeau
go to work wasted
 
comeau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Virginia
Posts: 621
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by comeau View Post
i don't just think it'll be hilllary, i pray that it's hillary. i weep for an america that's stupid enough to vote in jeb or rubio, or god forbid trump. this country though...
god I hate the people in this country, how did we do this

comeau is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 08-11-2018, 08:04 PM   #104
box elder
Forum Leader
 
box elder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 19,531
Default

i like that we were all too depressed to even rub it in gatorgod's dumb fucking face when his "prediction" fell on its ass

box elder is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 08-12-2018, 12:14 PM   #105
benjamin
-
 
benjamin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 7,887
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by comeau View Post
kanye for president in 2020
This aged poorly

benjamin is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 08-12-2018, 12:14 PM   #106
benjamin
-
 
benjamin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 7,887
Default

...Wait...it'll happen now won't it?

benjamin is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 08-12-2018, 08:54 PM   #107
brody
I'm the real Lance
 
brody's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 10,951
Default

@Gatorgod

_________________________________________________________________________________________


brody is offline   Reply With Quote

Old 08-13-2018, 07:17 AM   #108
CeetjeBeetje
Brick fucking MASTER!
 
CeetjeBeetje's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 965
Default

_________________________________________________________________________________________


Guns don't kill people. Physics kill people!

CeetjeBeetje is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:26 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Designed By vBInspired.com